My fellow contest Players. Who do you like in the KY DERBY and why? I will post some thought on Saturday. YES I understand you have an obligation to protect your players so maybe you can post a couple of minutes before post if you have the time. If not, no worries. Good luck Gentlemen on the race. Hope at least one of us scores. I am playing win bets only. 3 ponies.
going with the #1 Mo Donegal who has shown the propensity to run some huge late pace figures. With the speed signed on here think it's within the realm of possibility the race falls apart. He needs to find a way thru and breaking from the #1 hole so he is up against it on some variables. But I see him flying late. Currently 8/1
2nd pick is #11 Pioneer of the Medina. shades come off this E/P 8 running style horse and has shown the ability to be forwardly placed in his dirt races. some nice works leading up to the derby. currently 47/1
2nd pick is #11 Pioneer of the Medina. shades come off this E/P 8 running style horse and has shown the ability to be forwardly placed in his dirt races. some nice works leading up to the derby. currently 47/1
Just came to post my horse and I see that Jack has posted the same horse, #1 Mo Donegal.
No horse has won out of the #1 hole since 1986 so he's up against it. But like Jack mentioned he had the fastest last quarter of any horse in the race. Irad Ortiz is aboard. Irad is the best, most agressive rider in the country. His preferred running style is coming off the pace, often out of the clouds. I f there is a jockey who can weave this horse through horses it's Irad.
Disclaimer. Good handicapping is about finding value in a field where there is discernable value. That assumes that the information you are using to handicap is reliable. What traditionally makes this race so tough is that these horses are young. Some have already run their lifetime best races or they wouldn't have qualified to be here. Most are improving so it is hard to measure who will improve the most with such a limited base under them. Further complications are the distance of the race. None have run this far to this point in their young careers. So it's hard to know who will not have the stamina and who will. Then there's the problem of the huge 20 horse racing field which will create multiple levels of challenges for the horses and their jockeys to negotiate. So, this race is never a race that you can circle with much certainty. There are many other better betting opportunities on the card. But.... it's the Derby and we all take a crack anyway because we love this day and this race.
The pool today is bloated by amateur money so the opportunities for big exacta and trifecta payouts will be there. I rarely play trifectas but will putting together a bunch of horses today and going for it because the payouts can be much bigger than we normally see. So good luck if you do likewise.
The longshot I like the best is #19, Zozos. He only has a three race foundation but he's got an excellent trainer, has improved considerably in each race, and ran second to Epicenter (who will be one of the favorites here) at 1 3/16 miles. If he can continue to improve, and gain a little stamina he could surprise at a big price.
Have fun. Good luck.
PS I have a table reserved at Seabrook Casino. Will be heading there soon. Can't wait. Love Derby Day.
No horse has won out of the #1 hole since 1986 so he's up against it. But like Jack mentioned he had the fastest last quarter of any horse in the race. Irad Ortiz is aboard. Irad is the best, most agressive rider in the country. His preferred running style is coming off the pace, often out of the clouds. I f there is a jockey who can weave this horse through horses it's Irad.
Disclaimer. Good handicapping is about finding value in a field where there is discernable value. That assumes that the information you are using to handicap is reliable. What traditionally makes this race so tough is that these horses are young. Some have already run their lifetime best races or they wouldn't have qualified to be here. Most are improving so it is hard to measure who will improve the most with such a limited base under them. Further complications are the distance of the race. None have run this far to this point in their young careers. So it's hard to know who will not have the stamina and who will. Then there's the problem of the huge 20 horse racing field which will create multiple levels of challenges for the horses and their jockeys to negotiate. So, this race is never a race that you can circle with much certainty. There are many other better betting opportunities on the card. But.... it's the Derby and we all take a crack anyway because we love this day and this race.
The pool today is bloated by amateur money so the opportunities for big exacta and trifecta payouts will be there. I rarely play trifectas but will putting together a bunch of horses today and going for it because the payouts can be much bigger than we normally see. So good luck if you do likewise.
The longshot I like the best is #19, Zozos. He only has a three race foundation but he's got an excellent trainer, has improved considerably in each race, and ran second to Epicenter (who will be one of the favorites here) at 1 3/16 miles. If he can continue to improve, and gain a little stamina he could surprise at a big price.
Have fun. Good luck.
PS I have a table reserved at Seabrook Casino. Will be heading there soon. Can't wait. Love Derby Day.
My logical play for the Derby is the 12- Taiba. In all these years, rarely do we have a Derby winner that has not cracked a triple digit Beyer on his résumé. The one that I can think of was Giacamo who won without breaking the 100 Beyer. This then would only include 3- Epicenter, 6- Messier and the 12- Taiba. I don’t like the 3-Epicenter because I think Rosario may need to spend more energy in the beginning to establish position with this horse running style. As for 6- Messier, Taiba beat him very easily last out. Yes he was dueling with Forbidden Kingdom but it was crazy crazy fast. 12- Taiba 1.7 million dollar colt has cracked 100 Beyer in 2 life time starts which is pretty amazing for a 3 year old. I think you either key him or toss him because of the his limited starters and experience. I think Mike will give him a clean trip and the rest is up to the horse. My decision is to key him. With that said, I’m also gonna play the 18- Tawny Port. I am also looking for a closer and I think he is closer that most people will overlook. Anyways, that my take on the Derby. I think the pace will be swift and Taiba should get first crack at the front runners turning for home and maybe with Tawny Port flying late for a photo finish… lol
GL Jack and everyone who is playing today.
GL Jack and everyone who is playing today.
